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Research Article

Forecasting Milk Production in India: Strategic Insights for Policymakers and Farmers

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Vengalarao Pachava — Assistant Professor, NMIMS University, Hyderabad, Telangana, India
Basavaprabhu Jirli — Centre for Multi-Disciplinary Development Research, Dharwad, Karnataka, India
M S Basavaraj — Associate Professor, Department of Economic Studies and Planning, Central University of Karnataka, Kalaburgi, Karnataka, India
Shashi Kumar R — Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, SRM University, Amaravati, Andhra Pradesh, India
Siva Krishna Golla — Assistant Professor, National Forensic Sciences University, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
Published 31 Mar 2025 Vol. 61 No. 2 (2025), pp. 14-18 ● Open access
❝ How to cite 🔗 https://doi.org/10.48165/IJEE.2025.61203
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Abstract

India’s dairy sector plays a critical role in rural income, employment, and food security, contributing significantly to the nation’s GDP. This study forecasts India’s milk production for the period 2024–2033, using historical data from 1981–2023 obtained from the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Government of India. The study adopts ARIMA and Holt’s Exponential Smoothing models for the forecasting of milk production in India, both the models reflected strong fits, with ARIMA excelling in capturing temporal structures and Holt’s model focusing on linear trends. Performance metrics highlighted the high accuracy of both models, with R-squared values exceeding 0.99 and minimal error margins. The research provides actionable insights for farmers, policymakers, and other stakeholders. The results project milk production to increase steadily, reaching 315.6–321.4 million tons by 2033. The study highlights the potential of leveraging these forecasts for strategic planning, including synchronizing production with demand, improving market stability, and addressing infrastructural and environmental challenges.
KeywordsIndian dairy industryARIMAHolt’s exponential smoothingSustainable development

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